Thursday Morning

Slightly warmer than yesterday, clear, a little windy. Tomorrow and Saturday will be the same although the winds are going to pick up. Another system is expected to move through on Friday night and after that the temperatures will drop some more, with highs in the upper fifties.

Wednesday morning

Nice day, high around 70, light wind, puffy clouds moving off the lake. The rest of the week should be like this, slowly getting warmer and then cooling down again on Saturday. There might be a little rain Saturday morning, but it is too early to tell.

Tuesday Morning

Windy, high around 65, clouds will clear by 11. Take care of yourself and try to avoid getting sick.

Rain

'This morning I woke up and got really excited because I thought it was cloudy. Turns out my blinds were just pulled down low and it was actually brilliant and sunshine (yuck). WHEN IS THE RAIN COMING? I need an excuse to pull out my Morrissey solo albums.' - Katherine Raz

Possibly Friday, according to the computer models. I don't have time to look at all of the data right now, but I will try in the next few days to make some long term forecasts and to explain fall weather patterns.

Hurricaust!

'Jon here, brain soaked with pabst on friday evening, wondering why all the sudden lambasting of the florida peninsula with the hurricanes, wondering if four majors is only the beginning of a 'Hurricaust' (YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!) of a season for them, wondering what affect this will have on the midwesterner, and wondering where andy hid the bottle opener....'

Divine Retribution.

Actually, I don't know. The Hurricane Prediction Center predicted an above average year for hurricanes based on a number of variables such as wind shears and ocean temperatures and trade winds, which are too boring to explain here unless you really want to know, all of which are related to this 'multi-decadal signal', which as far as I can tell is scientific shorthand for 'the conditions necessary for hurricane formation fluctuate roughly every few decades and we don't know why'. If you want to know all of the details of this, ask me again, but I warn you it is very complicated and dull. Unlike the Hurricast! Which could continue because the season doesn't end until mid-october. None of this affects the midwesterner, it just makes us feel better about ourselves.

Monday Morning

I am sorry to announce that today is the last day of summer.

An arctic air mass is bearing down on us and will be here by tomorrow afternoon bringing highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, plus some wind. Have your fun tonight and pull the sweaters out tomorrow. Prepare for wistful and melancholic moods, minor depressions and bursts of productivity.

Sunday Morning

Perfect high pressure day. No clouds, clean air, high around 72 but it will feel a little warmer in the sun. Wear layers because it will be chilly in the shadows and after the sun begins to set.

Friday Morning

Sorry for the late forecast, especially since we have a little weather today. Expect some very light rain around 11:30 or noon, but it will be over shortly and will hardly affect your plans at all. This evening it will start cooling down, and tomorrow the highs will be around 70. A boring frontal passage, and nothing exciting for a while.

Thursday morning

Sunny, warm, lovely. High in the mid eighties, it will feel like a summer afternoon. Warm evenings are going to be few and far between from now on, so take advantage of tonight, which will be pleasant.

Any rain we might have this week will come through tomorrow evening, but it won't be much. Temperatures will drop to the low 70s by Saturday.

Tuesday Morning

Same same same. Highs in the low eighties, sunny, etc. No excitement until friday, and it won't be that exciting.

Monday Morning

Same as yesterday, but a few degrees warmer. Don't wear a sweater. It might feel a little muggy in the afternoon, but overall very nice.

Learning Corner

Katherine Raz again. You haven't posted the weather in two days now. It's after 10 am on Friday! I'll forgive you if you can tell me about "storm surges" in the Great Lakes. I believe they're called, "saitches"? (No idea how to spell it.)

'Sloshing', that inelegant term with its connotations of muddy streets and tepid bathwater, is the word that the English language has provided us for describing the motions of water in an enclosed basin. Happily it has been replaced for us by some Swiss scientists who studied the effects of storms on Alpine lakes with the lovely 'seiche' (pronounced saysh). All lakes have constantly occurring minor seiches, but every once in a while a large seiche will occur as a result of a storm surge or an earthquake. In a large seiche the levels of a lake rise and fall dramatically for a few hours, usually resulting in flooding and damage to boats and ports. Apparently seiches are a source of much fascination for a few wave nerds who have posted charts and statistics of famous seiches all over the web. Also, seiches can be used to explain the Loch Ness Monster.

Sunday Morning

Sorry about the dearth of forecasts this week. I was having too much fun and sleeping past ten. Besides, the weather was exactly the same anyway. But it was nice that you all noticed and so I will try not to leave you high and dry for so long again. I will answer Ms. Katherine's next weather question later today, when I have a little more time. Here is today's forecast:

Very pleasant. Highs in the upper seventies, light breeze, sun, crisp air. Go outside and do pleasant things. The sun will make it feel hotter than it really is in the afternoon.

Learning Corner

Ms. Katherine Raz has written with some fascinating weather questions. All of you who want to know more about the mysterious and exciting world of contemporary American weather, read on.

1.) What's going on with the tidal wave in New Orleans? I heard something small about it on the news. Seems pretty freaky - you'd think they'd cover it more. Does that wave have to do with tectonic shift, or is it hurricaine-related?

In a kick-ass exciting world there would be a huge tidal wave heading right towards our favorite southern metropolis caused by a massive tectonic shift and intensified by a force 5 hurricane, and we would be getting cool enhanced infrared images of the Gulf of Mexico and then news footage of a 200 foot high breaking wave towering over suburban bungalows with people running around and screaming in the foreground. But given that we just live in a sucky moderately interesting world, here is what is going on:

There is no tidal wave, just a storm surge. A storm surge is exactly what it sounds like: a big surge of water caused by a hurricane or tropical storm that pushes the water away from itself. The National Weather Service is expecting a pretty big surge to hit the coast today, and given the fact that most of New Orleans is below sea level and that it is heavily populated one can expect quite a bit of damage. At the worst they are predicting flooding up to two stories high in houses near the coast. Because this isn't as exciting as a tidal wave, and it is generally what people expect in hurricane prone areas, we don't hear too much about it.

Here is a nice little graphic that the NY Times put together.

2.) Can you explain "lake effect" snow? I'm from Grand Rapids, Mich., which got a lot of lake effect. Does Chicago get it? How does the lake effect snowfall in Chicago, and how does that differ from a place like GR or Buffalo, New York, for instance?

Lake effect snow is the result of cold dry winter air flowing over the warmer, wetter air above a lake. Other conditions (those necessary for any precipitation) have to be satisfied for actual snowfall to occur, but cold winds and lakes provide most of what is needed. Precipitation is a complicated thing, but basically to get any you want warmer wetter air to be lifted over dryer colder air, and the warm wet air will cool down as it rises and condensation will occur and that condensation will get heavy and fall and then you have yourself some precipitation. So when cold air blows across the lake and the conditions are right for that lake air to be lifted over and in front of the cold air then snow is created on the leeward side of the lake.

Because the prevailing winds in these parts are from west to east, places on the eastern sides of the Great Lakes get the most lake effect snow. Occasionally if the winds shift or if we are on the northern part of a cyclonic storm system we will get lake effect snow here in Chicago. A little more snowfall falls here than on those podunks west of us, but we don't get nearly as much as our friends in Michigan or Buffalo.

Katherine, I hope this 'clears up' your 'foggy' weather notions.

Please folks! Don't remain in the dark about the weather that affects your life.
Write in to the Chicago Weather Learning Corner and watch the skies clear!

Love,
Adrienne

Wednesday afternoon

Sorry, I guess it will rain sooner. It looks like it will really start around 4:15 and then rain off and on through the evening. Nothing too heavy.

Wednesday morning

Highs around 83, the wind will continue to pick up and it will become mostly cloudy by this afternoon. Rain this evening beginning after seven, but this frontal system is turning out to be pretty wimpy, so don't expect anything too special tonight. Tomorrow will be cooler with possibly some leftover rain in the morning, but clearing up later. You may begin to feel like drinking cider and buying gourds.

Ivan

El Nino!

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization has announced that El Nino is back, which is good news for us because it typically means a mild winter. They aren't making any forecasts yet, but here is their announcement.

Tuesday Morning

Sunny, humid, hot. The high will be around 86 but it will feel like 90. Tomorrow will probably be the same but with storms building near the evening.

To my loyal customers

Please, let me know how accurate you think my forecasts are. Tell me if I suck. Leave a comment. Or ask me a weather question.

Have a good day!

Monday Morning

Same as yesterday, perhaps a few degrees warmer in the afternoon. Prepare to sweat a little. The next frontal system will move through on Wednesday, so nothing exciting until then.

Sunday Morning

Forget what I said yesterday about cooler weather for the next few days. There was this weak cold front heading towards us but it veered northward and won't affect us. So, the weather should remain constant for the next few days with highs in the low to mid 80s and no rain until Tuesday night at the earliest but more likely on Wednesday night. I am guessing that today's high will be 83.

Here is a picture of hurricane Ivan.

Saturday Morning

Summer weather, high of 85, clouds here and there but they won't rain, 85% humidity. Mostly crowded with yuppies and art weirdos through tomorrow. Enjoy this hot muggy stuff before it cools down and starts to feel like september for the rest of the week.

Tuesday Morning

Sunny all day with a high around 74. Crisp clean air, should feel like September.

Monday Afternoon

Becoming cloudy again, and then more scattered storms that will continue on and off. Continuing to cool down through evening, winds picking up again.

Monday Morning

Highs in the mid-eighties until frontal passage near noon, then increasing winds, scattered storms, clouds, temperature dropping to the seventies. Partly cloudy and cooler in the evening.

Sunday

Lost my granny cart. Contacted the spirit of Xavier Hyde last night.