Saturday (29th) afternoon

Boring winter weather for the next few days. Highs in the mid-thirties, lows in the mid-twenties, slowly getting warmer throughout the week. Partly cloudy the whole time. I will make another forecast in a couple of days if anything happens. Hopefully my dsl connection will be set up at my new place in a week, and I will resume forecasting daily.

Saturday Morning

It will continue to snow throughout the rest of the daylight hours. Expect another four inches, most of this is lake-effect snow. The wind will pick up with gusts of up to forty miles per hour blowing all of the snow around. Be very careful if you drive. Better not to leave the house.

***Warning***

Yes, we will get about ten inches of snow over the next 24 hours. Snow will start tonight around six and continue through tomorrow night. High winds tomorrow will create blizzard conditions with blowing and drifting snow. The heaviest snowfall is expected tomorrow afternoon as the winds shift to the northeast and create lake-effect snow.

Tuesday Night

Light snow beginning tonight around 6:30, we will get somewhere between one and three inches, but this storm is moving so quickly that it won't even have time to dump much else on us. Tomorrow won't be as warm as I thought, sorry, but the high will be somewhere in the thirties, so put on your shorts and enjoy it.

Forecast Forecast

Forecasts will be intermittent and spotty over the next week or so as I move to my new apartment and set up my computer and dsl line. I expect a 50 percent chance of forecasts on any given weeknight and a 30 percent chance on weekends, until the end of next week.

Monday Night

Tomorrow will be slightly warmer. Slightly. Like high in the low twenties. Expect some clouds to move in later, and then there might be some snow tomorrow night, but it is a little early to tell. We will definitely get a little snow sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday night, but I don't think it will be much. Wednesday will be much warmer as the lower edge of this warm front moves through, with highs in the forties, but then the temperatures will drop again as the corresponding cold front moves through, most likely with more snow. At this point it doesn't look like this system will be as exciting as the ones that passed through in the last few weeks, so don't expect much snow or many thrills.

Friday Night

Please excuse the previous post. This week will be cold, sunny and sober. A large area of high pressure will be firmly stationed over our area for the next few days, which means that nothing will happen. Tomorrow will be just like today except colder, and the next day will be the same as tomorrow except colder.

Thursday Night

Okay sorry. I haven't had access to a computer for a few days, but I found an apartment. And now you are lucky enough to get a drunk forecast/. Excuse me drunken forecast. Tomorrow will be very very cold and sunny and make you want to scream. The last few days were fine examples of a very major system that had the power to pull lots of warm air from the south and lots of cold air from the north oh my god I am making no sense and will stop now very sorry I swear I will get my act together soon please be patient. Love Adrienne

Sunday Evening

I almost don't have the heart to give this forecast. Sorry that I ever promised sun earlier this week (I was blindly trusting the National Weather Service, which I should know by now not to do). We probably won't have any until Friday, and I can't even be sure of that. Tonight and tomorrow will be cloudy and sort of warmish, then we will have a horrible mess of freezing rain, snow etc. in the middle of the week. We might not get significant amounts of precipitation, but it will be enough to make things more inconvenient and ugly and sloshy and depressing. You will find yourself sleeping constantly and talking to your yourself or your cat.

Friday Evening

We may get a few little flurries of snow tonight from the very top of this system that is just south of us right now, but it is heading out of the area very quickly. Tomorrow's high will be in the low thirties and we will see some sun; but on Sunday the temperatures will reach close to forty, the sun will be shining, and hopefully some of this snow will melt. The next major system will move into the area sometime on Monday and will bring with it some kind of precipitation, most likely rain, but possibly freezing rain or more snow. If you build a snowman now it will have a short life and probably a lengthy and gruesome death.

Thursday Afternoon

Sorry I couldn't do an in-depth analysis of the storm. But anyway...These little flurries we are having right now will end by this evening,and then we have a few days of sunny boring weather. The high tomorrow will be in the upper twenties, and the temperatures will rise slowly through the weekend.

***Winter Weather Alert***

A winter storm will start slowly tonight around 7:30 or 8 with some freezing rain, which will turn to snow after 10. The snow may be spotty tonight, but will become more intense and continue through tomorrow night. We could end up with almost a foot after the Wednesday is over, and if the freezing rain is heavy enough it will have a layer of ice underneath. Get your groceries tonight if possible. In-depth analysis of this storm later.

Monday Night

Possible bits of freezing rain early in the morning, but then just cloudy with a high in the low twenties. It will begin snowing early in the morning on Wednesday, and continue through the day.

Monday Morning

Cold rain all day, slowing down at night and becoming freezing rain.

Winter Forecast

"I'm so glad Adrienne is back in action. Now I don't have to live with her to get up to date forecasts! But Adrienne, please tell us there is some hope in the near future. Is the rest of the winter going to be this treacherous?
Lauren"

Okay, I can't claim much success with long term forecasts, but neither can anyone else, so I will try here to give you some idea of what to expect this winter. I think we are safe for another week or two from a nasty spell like the one we had before Christmas, but we can expect at least a few more of them before winter is over simply because that is typical in these parts. Huge temperature oscillations like those we saw in the last few weeks become less likely as winter progresses and the major weather systems move south of us; so although we will probably experience the same bitter cold it will approach slowly and won't be as shocking, but will stay longer and be more depressing. Also as a result of these systems moving south we tend to get less precipitation in the coming months. I'm inclined to think that any exciting snow storms we get will come in the next two weeks; after that it will be boring and cold, averaging in the twenties, with an occasional dip into the single digits and an occasional day above 35, and a few snow showers with accumulations of about an inch and a half.


According to the Climate Prediction Center we have a 33 percent chance of below average temperatures and a 50 percent chance of above average precipitation 8 to 14 days from now. I don't know what this is supposed to look like and they don't really clarify, but maybe you can make something up.

Learning Corner

Anonymous (Jon) writes:

speaking of 40's, I'm drinking one right now, and the high life girl on the label wants to know
a) how the earthquakes in the south asian seas will affect our weather
b) why it's so blurdy warm at the end of december
c) why meteorologists don't denote when the low will be different from the "overnight" low, because, come on, seriously, doesn't it sometimes happen where it gets *WARMER* at night than it was during the day? I know we've been in it over the appoximate times of "lows" and "highs", but seriously. It was warmer out when I left the bookstore tonight than when I went in.
Tell me the why of that, blog!
The high-life lady thanks you.

The answers, in order, are:

a) they won't
b) so we can party!
c) most meteorologists are forecasting for upstanding members of society who are sleeping at night instead of drinking forties and reading blogs, and so don't care at what time during their slumbers the temperatures hit the actual low. Honestly, this is close to the truth. But also, on a night when a warm front passes (like the one when you wrote this) if you look at a detailed forecast they will usually mention that the low will occur around midnight (because it is technically the low for the next day) and that temperatures will rise through the morning. So although the night might be warmer than the previous day it will still be cooler than the next, and so they still give you a low. I hope that makes sense.

Sunday Night

There is a little patch of freezing rain heading our direction that might reach us in the early morning hours, but if temperatures are warm enough it might be just plain old rain, and no matter what there won't be much of it.
Beyond that everything is unpredictable. In the next few days we could get more freezing rain, then regular rain, then freezing rain again, then snow; or rain then snow, or just snow, or just rain, or nothing at all. But because I am your forecaster I will not avoid sticking my neck out and will make up a forecast for you, which is mainly an opinion anyway, and it is this: cold stinging rain in little patches tomorrow during the day, then nothing for a while, then very light snow on Tuesday night and Wednesday. I can tell you with some certainty that the temperature will reach the mid-thirties tomorrow and probably won't be oscillating too much over the next few days. And if my forecast is correct there will be small patches of ice around tomorrow night.